Sorry folks. As told to me by Fullerton councilman Bruce Whitaker. “Numbers, numb.” However we do need to review them in our candidate vetting process.
Those of us living in CA have to endure progressive political actions from coast to coast.. While we suffer with the House of Representatives lacking a Republican majority we have a bigger challenge in our own State Legislature.
In a prior report I confirmed the Democratic party holding a super majority. Two-thirds of the seats. When combined the 2/3rd in our state Senate with 2/3rds of our state Assembly they were able to increase gas taxes without a vote of the public.
My next report covers the current and projected Assembly winners in both the Primary and General elections as detailed at the end of this post..
Every two years, just as we have with the U.S. House of Representatives, every CA Assembly member has the opportunity to run for re-election. Our Assembly is made up of 80 members. Of that number Republicans would need win 26 seats in 2020 to block a “super majority” in that House. If we fail, than our Legislature can raise future gas taxes as mentioned above. The Democrats currently hold 61 seats while Republicans hold 18. Do the math. They can lose one seat in November and retain that power. We have one Independent member, Chad Mays, former Republican, who voted for Cap and Trade.
Eight Incumbent Assembly members are not on the 2020 Primary ballot. Six are Democrats: AD 13, AD 25, AD 37, AD 38, AD 57 and AD 78. The two open Republican seats are AD 33 and AD 67. All detailed below.
There are no Republican challengers in 15 of the 80 seats. Having reviewed the voting records of those Districts I can understand why. Democrats won those seats in 2018 capturing 65% to 80% and more of the votes cast in the 2018 General election.
Let me simply project the overall winners for the Nov General election. Note: A future report will address the contested races once we receive the year end campaign income and expenditure reports that are due next month.
I predict Democrat Incumbents will win the following 52 seats. AD 2, AD 4, AD 7, AD 8, AD 9, AD 10, AD 11, AD 14, AD 15, AD 17, AD 18, AD 19, AD 20, AD 21, AD 22, AD 24, AD 27, AD 28, AD 29, AD 30, AD 31, AD 32, AD 39, AD 40, AD 41, AD 43, AD 44, AD 45, AD 46, AD 47, AD 48, AD 49, AD 50, AD 51, AD 52, AD 53, AD 54, AD 56, AD 58, AD 59, AD 61, AD 62, AD 62, AD 63, AD 64, AD 66, AD 69, AD 70, AD 76, AD 77, AD 79 and AD 80.
Republican Incumbents should retain the following 12 seats. AD 1, AD 3, AD 5, AD 6, AD 12, AD 23, AD 26, AD 34, AD 35, AD 55, AD 71 and AD 75
The following Assembly races will be addressed after i can review their latest financial reports and voter registration.
AD 13 Stockton Only 3 Dem’s in the race. (D) Incumbent is out
AD 16 Walnut Creek(I) (D) only won 50.6 % of the votes in 2018. Need to vet (R) Joseph Rubay
AD 25 Fremont (I) (D) is out. Won with 74.3% in 2018
AD 33. Big Bear. (I) (R) is out. Won with 60.2% in 2018
AD 36 Lancaster. (R) (I) Tom Lackey won in a close race with 52.1% in 2018. He could be a target
AD 37 Ventura (I) (D) is out. Limon won with 80.4 % in 2 018 AOC endorsed Jonathan Abboud. Six Dems and one Rep. This is a solid Dem seat
AD 38. Simi/Santa Clarita. Flipped from GOP to Dem in 2018 with 51.2% (D) (I) is out
AD 42 Palm Springs Former Republican Chad Mayes is the Incumbent. He is running as an Independent. We remember Chad from his vote on “cap and trade.”
AD 57 Industry/Norwalk. (I) (D) Calderon is out. Won with 64.9% on 2018. Eight Dems and one GOP. This is a Dem seat
AD 65. Fullerton/Ana. (I) (D) Sharon Quirk -Silva defeated Alexandria Coronado with 57%. I’m not sure about R challenger Cynthia Thacker
AD 67. Lake Elsinore Republican(I) Melissa Melendez is running for State Senate. She captured 67% of the 2018 vote. Four Republicans seeking her seat .One Dem. GOP should retain this seat.
AD 68 Irvine/Lake Forest. (I) (R) Steven Choi captured 59% of the 2018 vote. He is being challenged by R Benjamin Yu and D Melissa Fox Irv. C.C.
AD 72 Garden Grove. (I) (R) Tyler Diep won in 2018 with 51.6% of the vote. He is being challenged by former State senator (R) Janet Nguyen and two Dems. This should remain a R seat. The OC GOP just pulled their endorsement of his campaign based o n his vote supporting AB 5. My recommendation is to vote for Janet Nguyen. Caution . There is another Nguyen on the Ballot (D) Diedre Nguyen.
AD 73. Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo. (I) (R) Bill Brough won in 2018 with 56.2 % of the votes cast. He is being challenged by Laurie Davies and Ed Sachs. Much has been written about Bill relating to his conduct. I will not address those allegations in this post nor will I indicate my preference as this is my District. Stay tuned. This should remain a GOP seat.
AD 74 Irvine. (R) Matt Harper lost to (D) Cottie Petrie-Norris in 2018 where Cottie won with 52.7% of the vote. We need to flip this seat back to the GOP. Newport Beach Mayor Diane Dixon and Kelly Emby are competing as Republican challengers
AD 78. La Jolla. What a shame. After winning this seat in 2018 (I) (D) Todd Gloria is not on the ballot nor are there any Republicans. The three Democrats are a queer single mom, and Environmentalist and a S.D. city council member. Obviously without a Republican candidate this is an automatic Democratic seat.
As stated above I have to engage in additional analysis to give my projections on this last group. While we can flip a few Assembly seats, IMO, the Dems will easily retain their “super majority” of both Houses for another two years.