Rohrabacher Leading By Nine Points Over Rouda In Latest CA-48 Survey By TPStrat Research
Editorial by Strategist John Thomas:
Rohrabacher has taken a significant lead in the race for CA-48, breaking the 50% threshold this week, despite TPStrat’s statewide generic ballot testing revealing a heavy Democratic advantage. Thus far the 48th CD appears to be immune to such negative gravity. Trump is popular, Republicans are winning the generic ballot and there is a slight edge for the amount of voters who want Trump’s agenda to be pushed in Congress. This seat is proving reliably red with a large R+10 Republican registration advantage giving Rohrabcher a large cushion to absorb a generally unfavorable climate for Republicans nationally. Rouda is winning with No-Party-Preference voting bloc with 49.9% to Rohrabacher’s 42.9%. Rohrabacher is winning with women with a commanding lead at 51.8% to Rouda’s 40.9%.
The tsunami of negative ads attacking Rohrabcher have done damage to his favorables putting him underwater at 50.4% unfav to 41.7% fav. Despite poor favorability for a 29-year incumbent, Rohrabacher has been given life support from Donald Trump.
While California overall breaks in favor of Democrats and against Trump, CA-48 is proving to be the firewall holding back the blue wave.
- Rohrabacher has a nine-point lead over Rouda breaking the 50% threshold.
- CA-48 appears to be the firewall to Calif’s blue wave.
- President Trump’s approval rating is 56.4% in the district.
- Generic ballot reveals Republicans with a 10.2% advantage over Democrats.
- 49.3% of voters want Congress to support Trump’s agenda.
TPStrat Research conducted two tracking surveys in California’s 48th Congressional district on 10/18 and 10/31. 440 likely voters participated in each survey yielding a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.
Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has a nine-point lead over Democrat Harley Rouda heading into the last week of California’s general election according to our new survey of likely voters.
- Dana Rohrabacher: 49.2%
- Harley Rouda: 41.4%
- Unsure: 9.4%
- Dana Rohrabacher: 50.7%
- Harley Rouda: 41.6%
- Unsure: 7.7%
Rohrabacher has maintained this lead for two weeks in a row while President Trump’s approval ratings averaged 55%. Respondents favor Congress supporting Trump’s policies and agenda rather than acting as a check on the President.
Checks and Balances
Support Trump’s Agenda: 49.3%
Check Against Trump: 47.2%
Our survey revealed both candidates with high negatives and upside down in their approvals with Rohrabacher having a greater negative impression with voters by a margin of 7%.
Dana Rohrabacher Fav/Unfav
- Favorable: 41.7%
- Unfavorable: 50.4%
- Unsure: 7.9%
Harley Rouda Fav/Unfav
- Favorable: 40.7%
- Unfavorable: 44%
- Unsure: 15.3%
The generic ballot shows a consistent Republican advantage for two weeks in a row.
- Republican: 51.2%
- Democrat: 40.9%
- Unsure/Would Not Vote: 7.7%
Methodology Statement: We surveyed CA-48 twice: between 10/18-10/19 and again on 10/30-10/31, each survey consisted of 440 modeled likely midterm voters in California’s 48th Congressional district via IVR, landline only. Likely voters were defined as registered voters having voted in the 2010 and 2014 midterm general elections, or in the 2016 primaries, plus the 15% additional most likely to turnout in the 2018 general based on in-house turnout score modeling. Margin of error varies by question and segment but is generally +/- 4.7% for topline results. Sample was weighted by age, gender, party and geo. Results were then re-balanced after processing results based on these same cohorts to account for differential response rates.