February 3, 2014
To: Interested Parties
From: Richie Ross
Re: 34th Senate District
As interested parties evaluate the 2014 election in the 34th Senate District, there are a number of factors to consider.
With years of service on the Santa Ana City Council, three terms in the Assembly, and now on the Community College Board Jose Solorio has proven his appeal to Orange County voters.
Question: How will Jerry Brown do in this district in 2014?
Answer: Based on the Governor Brown’s record, the lesser quality of his likely Republican opponent, and the fact that he will have the spending advantage this time, Jerry Brown will carry the 34th Senate District this year.
Question: Will anyone who casts a ballot for Jerry Brown then vote for a Republican State Senate candidate?
Answer: Given that Jose Solorio teamed up with Jerry Brown on the issues Governor Brown will highlight in his campaign — reforming workers compensation, the state budget, public employee pensions — it seems unlikely that there will be defection.
Question: In what direction is the District trending?
Answer: In 2012, President Obama carried this Orange County Senate District with 53% of the vote. Latino voters have increased to 25%. In 2006, when Lou Correa defeated Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher (with Arnold Schwarzenegger leading the Republican ticket), Democrats held a 2.8% voter registration edge on Election Day. Today, that margin has moved up to 3% for Democrats.
A significant voter registration drive is beginning with an expectation that the Democratic margin will more than double.
Question: How will Jose Solorio, Community College Trustee match up with Janet Nguyen, County Supervisor?
Answer: Any review of news stories about each candidate over the last 18 months demonstrates that Jose Solorio will have a clear advantage.