Republican Party insiders would love to blame their election losses on emerging demographic voting patterns, which result in voting “based on who you are, not where you live or how well each campaign has articulated its case.” This excuse does provide cover for Karl Rove’s American Crossroads PAC to defend why their $103 million in television ads got only a 1.29% return on its investment. But as Ron Paul eloquently explains, after the Party leadership excluded millions of Libertarian youth, Republicans really lost because they:
“go along with endorsing a never-ending policy of bailouts, “stimulus packages,” and foreign military adventurism, [and] the establishment of neither major party questions the assaults on Americans’ liberties … As my campaign showed, the American people are fed up. Many realized heading into Tuesday that regardless of who won the presidential election, the status quo would be the real victor.” …
“GOP leadership is now questioning why they didn’t perform better. They’re looking at demographic changes in the United States and implying minorities can only be brought into the party by loudly advocating for abandoning what little remains of their limited government platform and endorsing more statist policies.
My presidential campaign proved that standing for freedom brings people together. Liberty is popular – regardless of race, religion, or creed. A renewed respect for liberty is the only way forward for the Republican Party and for our country.”
Democrat Barak Obama just won reelection by a margin of 3 million out of the 120 million votes cast, 11 million less than voted in 2008. Comparing 2012 to 2008; Obama netted 3% fewer Democrat votes, while Mitt Romney earned 3% more Republican votes. Romney earned more Black votes, married men, married woman, Protestants, Catholics, and Jews than the in 2008. He improved support among non-married men and woman by 2%. Romney was favored by 38% on the top two issues of the economy and the budget. Regarding the personal traits – strong leader, shares my values, and has a vision for the future; Mitt Romney dominated Barack Obama among 2012 voters by 45% points – and lost!
According to Dick Morris, “Our votes are predictable based on our race, ethnicity, age and marital status well before anybody does any campaigning.” Morris highlights that more than from his racial voting advantages with 93% of Blacks and 70% of Latinos, Obama’s victory is due to capturing 60% of the under 30 and 62% of singles votes. The billion dollars spent in on TV “advertising in eight states did very little to move the vote share among any of these demographic groups. Voters are not watching television as much these days and those that are still turning it on are fast forwarding through the ads. And negative campaign ads — in fact, all ads, — are losing their impact.”
Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan for Vice President energized the right wing of his Party that would have voted for him anyway, but did nothing to court the key under 30 or singles demographic. As we pointed out in “Republicans Defeated By Community Organizer Again”, the Republican National Committee in desperation after the 2008 election disaster adopted their own version of the Democrat’s community organizing strategy and achieved record election success in 2010 by expanding inclusion of urban moderates and the burgeoning Tea Party Movement. But once back on top, the Party dumped community organizing and reverted back to a massive TV advertising blitz. On Election Day, Romney’s campaign was shocked that in big cities there was a ratio of 150 Democratic to only 40 Republican volunteer Headquarters. Democrats had spent the last year focused on registering singles and under 30 college students, then got them to the polls. Romney even lost Wisconsin by 6%, where Ryan is a Congressman.
During the Republican Primaries, 76 year old Texas Congressman Ron Paul never registered support from more than 10% for Republicans over 35, but was the preferred choice of all the 18-29 demographic nationally according to Gallup Poll. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief, said: “It’s a conundrum. We know that in general American[s] 18-29 (across all party lines) are less negative towards big government and government power than those who are older. Yet Republican[s] 18-34 are disproportionately Paul supporters.” Strategist Mike Devanney credits Paul: “a bit of a counter-cultural figure.”
Libertarian Ron Paul is very conservative. On immigration, he favors ending birthright citizenship and reducing the number of newcomers until the welfare state is dismantled. He says abortion law should be settled at the state level, but introduced the Sanctity of Life Act to define life as beginning at conception. He champions the Bill to Audit the Fed and would like to fire Fed Chairman Bernanke. Unlike Obama, Romney, Ryan and Biden; he served in the military. He wants military spending cuts, yet still raised more money from active military personnel than all his competitors combined.
Ron Paul’s popularity among younger voters — he’s called a “rock star” on the college circuit — stems from the idealism of his politics. Kids rally behind his faith in the future, belief in the individual and confidence in bottom-up decision-making. Had Romney picked Paul as his running mate, Obama’s youth voter outreach would have imploded.
It would take 77 days to watch all 221,595 election TV ads aired in Ohio, but the data indicates that there was no return on either party’s investment. Had Romney named Ron Paul as his running mate and Paul picked up just the number of primary votes he received; Romney would have won Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Ron Paul’s viral support among college students and singles would have also registered millions of new Republicans, generated volunteers to man thousands of more campaign Republican Headquarters and probably sent Barack Obama into permanent retirement.
Republicans have been humiliated again and are being forced to go through the painful self-reflection that they have no one to blame except themselves for losing to Obama. Hopefully, they will learn from their mistakes and revive a very effective community organizing strategy for youth around Ron Paul’s Libertarian beliefs that standing for freedom brings people together and Liberty is popular.
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