J. M. Ivler, a friend of OC Politics Blog and an avowed non-fan of Los Al Mayor Troy Edgar, has been crunching numbers for his city and came up with the following analysis of the 72nd Assembly race. It’s worth sharing.
Imagine you have been on City Council for six years. In that time you have spent two years serving as the Mayor of the city. You have been the leader of the majority for the last four years. You decide to run for higher office, and you invest a great deal of your own money as well as other peoples in that effort. What would be a good predictor of how well you might do in an election?
The telling part of any election is how the people who know you best voted for you. Those people in this case would be the residents of Los Alamitos, the person is Troy Edgar and the race was AD-72.
The actual breakdown of the Los Alamitos electoral map is:
Suburbia & Old Dutch
Apt Row (East)
Apt Row (West)
Greenbrook; College Park N; Woodcrest
Okay, it’s clear that Troy Edgar lost to Travis Allen in Los Alamitos. We can see that the rental areas of the community had low voter turnout, as was expected, but that elsewhere throughout the city the voter turnout was all greater than 50% of the voters. but can we simplify this table a bit and show how well each candidate did as the percentage of the vote?
As we can see, we have a case where Mr. Edgar lost all but the two smallest precincts in Los Alamitos. Losing even the area where his home is located. In fact, in only two areas of Los Alamitos did Mr. Edgar actually get more votes, and that was a total of 12 votes between those two districts.
So, those voters that knew Mr. Edgar best chose by 65% to NOT vote for six term council member and twice Mayor Edgar.
A great deal was made of Romney and Ryan losing their perspective states, but when you have been on the City Council for six years and been Mayor twice in that time period, and were Mayor at the time of the vote, and you can’t carry the city you represent and live in, not even carrying the neighborhood you live in, that says a great deal about the failure, not of the campaign, but the politician.
That Travis Allen was only able to win by 11% when 35% of the City of Los Alamitos chose to NOT vote for Edgar shows that Edgar’s campaign was amazing at fooling those that did not know the Los Alamitos Mayor. So, kudos must be given to the Edgar campaign staff and their valiant efforts to make a man who couldn’t win the vote in his city palatable to the rest of the Assembly districts voters.
— J. M. Ivler
That’s a pretty poor showing for a six figure campaign, much of it funded with Troy Edgar’s own money. Why Edgar’s performance was so dismal is problematic — perhaps he lacked a ground campaign (it was observed his opponent blanketed certain areas of the District with motivated precinct walkers in late October/early November).
Perhaps it was plain inexperience on his Campaign Manager’s part — Brett Barbre‘s is known for his grimy lobbying skills, but apparently not much else. Perhaps it was an over reliance on his long list of endorsers — mostly GOP regulars he hit up early in the campaign that weren’t aware of his extremely abrasive personality and casual relationship with truth-telling (and ended up giving him no contributions).
Perhaps it was a lot of skeletons in his closet that came out as folks like Ivler looked into his relationship with a Los Al trash hauler and how they ended up with the city’s business by NOT being low bidder for it — this ended up costing the city $6.5 million. Perhaps it was Measure DD — a deceptive tax increase the Edgar authored and placed on the ballot while he was telling folks at the exact same time he would NOT be raising their taxes — but he then wouldn’t back that up by signing the ATR Tax Pledge as his opponent had.
Perhaps it was his lying on his Federal Campaign Reporting forms for inappropriate expenses during his failed congressional campaign as reported by the OC Weekly’s R. Scott Moxley. Maybe it was getting creamed in a one-on-one debate that he initially refused to participate in.
The Fountain Valley Patch reported Tuesday that Edgar’s campaign would be issuing a statement following his 10.8%, 12663 vote landslide loss. We’re looking forward to that — maybe Edgar’s got some answers — now two days later. Or maybe he’ll again just lead with his chin.