As a fan of Scott Lay’s Around the Capitol website and his daily email newsletter, “The Nooner”, we were uncomfortable with his good and likely accurate analysis today of the major California races:
“…this is what I see the day before the election on this year’s battleground races. If all prove true, here would be the make-up of the delegations:
- Congress (currently 34 Democrats, 18 Republicans): Dems pick up two net seats (lose “Cardoza’s” CD21, pick up Lungren’s CD07, Takano’s CD41, and Gallegly’s CD26) for 36 and 17 Republicans. Bera/Lungren could be very close, and it was difficult to give that a lean rating at all. I join Larry Sabato in putting it as a lean Democrat, mostly because of VBM/registration.
- State Senate (currently 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans): Dems pick up net 3 seats (with Blakeslee’s SD17) for 28 Democrats, 12 Republicans).
- State Assembly (currently 52 Democrats, 28 Republicans): Dems likely to pick up 2 seats (Valadao’s AD32 and Miller’s AD61) for 53 Democrats, 27 Republicans). If Muratsuchi wins AD66, Dems get two-thirds in the lower house–something most of us have considered unlikely this year.
Today, Republicans keep the Democrats from a 2/3rds “Super Majority” by just a handful of seats in each Chamber. With 2/3rds control of both sides, the Democrats won’t be stopped and can certainly be counted on to introduce new tax legislation to feed the “spending beast” and the public employee unions.
If the GOP loses two Assembly seats, we’ve lost the battle as it appears from Lay’s analysis that the Dems will be in complete control of the Senate in January. Ultimately, Proposition 13 is in danger as the Legislature could repeal it, and Governor Brown would surely sign its death certificate and take away the last protection we have from being raped by our own State government.
If we’re lucky, the GOP can hold their Super Minority in the Assembly, but there’s a snake in the grass that could lose it for us anyway — Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, running for the 72nd Assembly District against another Republican, Huntington Beach business owner Travis Allen, can NOT be trusted with tax legislation.
Over his six years on Los Al’s City Council, former Democrat Edgar has proposed or raised at least a dozen taxes. Just this year, he authored Proposition DD which deceptively decreases the city’s Telephone Utility Tax but ADDS services like cell phones, VoIP and possibly cable and satellite television to it for a huge revenue increase if it’s passed.
Travis Allen has signed the Americans for Tax Reform Pledge — this promise not to create or raise taxes is a commitment that Troy Edgar refuses to make. Edgar has proven he can’t be trusted with our money, and can’t be believed when he says he won’t raise taxes as he clearly has in Los Al and has again proposed to do per the Orange County Register.
The choice is clear. Travis Allen has pledged to protect our money and will honestly defend our interests in Sacramento. Troy Edgar can’t be trusted with a vote in the Assembly and should never be sent there.
Update: Listen to Travis Allen on the John and Ken Show, Monday’s Hour of Candidates here.