Pity the Orange County Republicans. Every two years they find some poor candidate to run against U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez, and she always wins.
Jerry Hayden did not have much competition in the primary, but he is in for what could be considered an uphill battle at best for the general election.
The fundraising in this race says it all. Loretta Sanchez despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has already rebuilt her campaign account having over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary. Jerry Hayden holds just over $12,000.
The name ID advantage also goes to Loretta Sanchez who is far better known in Santa Ana than Jerry Hayden is. This race is shaping up to not be more of the same for Loretta.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: Loretta Sanchez.
Registration aside, Linda Sanchez is going to have a big financial advantage in terms of fundraising capabilities and will have a huge name ID advantage based on the amount of time that she has served in Congress. The argument is always made that Congress is extremely unpopular and incumbents will easily be tossed out but people forget that voters still do generally like their own Congressional Representative.
Getting into specifics Sanchez has over $200,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Benjamin Campos has just over $5,000 cash on hand. This comparison just will not get the job done for a challenger facing a huge registration disadvantage.
The main factors at play on this campaign as stated above are fundraising, name id, and campaign experience. Linda Sanchez has the advantage in every one of these categories. However, I do believe that Benjamin Campos will beat Republican registration because in this election CPA is a strong designation to have due to the focus being budgetary issues.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: Linda Sanchez.