The June 5 Open Primary is fast approaching and the new election rules migjht result in some interesting general elections, in November, featuring members of the same political party duking it out.
The O.C. Register’s Briane Calle wrote in a recent column that “In Orange County’s 74th Assembly District, Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and a fellow Republican, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, could finish 1-2 on June 5, setting up a rematch in November. In that scenario, the third-place primary finisher, in this case Newport Beach businessman Bob Rush, a Democrat, would be eliminated and registered Democrats and others would be left to vote in November for one of the Republicans, ostensibly giving them the ability to swing the election (if they chose to vote).”
I am personally hoping that Daigle will be in the top two. She has a great shot at beating Mansoor in November. Mansoor is known for his anti-Mexican rhetoric. He is a former prison guard with a two year community college degree.
We might see two Democrats emerge in the 69th Assembly District, out of a total of four Democrats in the race. The top two Democrats are Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and Santa Ana Council Member Michele Martinez. The other two Democrats, Julio Perez and Francisco Barragan, are totally unknown. Perez has been mailing two to three mailers a day but all of that is unlikely to move him out of fourth place as his politics are too far left and the voters never heard of him. A lone Republican candidate, Jose “Joe” Moreno, does not have the backing of his party, but he could supplant Daly as one of the “top two,” simply by virtue of his partisan registration.
If Martinez makes the “top two” in the 69th A.D., she will easily win in the general election, as the 69th A.D. has a Latino voter majority. This is why Daly, and Perez, are spending a fortune now – for them this is their only shot at advancing and having a chance to win in this district.
Over in the 72md Assembly District, it is likely that Joe Dovinh, a businessman and former Decline to State voter who is now a Democrat, will end up facing one of three Republican candidates – Travis Allen, Troy Edgar and Long Pham, however it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the “top two” will be two of the Republicans. There is also a Tea Party Democrat in the race, in Albert Ayala, but I truly doubt he will get many votes.
While the Open Primary election rules spell doom for third party candidates, some weak candidates who are Democrats or Republicans, will move on to the general election if there are no other challengers besides them and the incumbent, For example, far left Occupy lawyer Greg Diamond, who is also an uninteresting, long-winded blogger over at the Orange Juice blog, is going to advance to the general election in the 29th State Senate District because he and the incumbent, Republican State Senator Bob Huff, are the only ones running for that seat. But it is hard to imagine that Diamond will get very many votes in the very Republican 29th State Senate District.